Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine over three years ago, the situation has evolved into a prolonged stalemate rather than a swift victory for Russian forces. Many are questioning why Russia is struggling so much.
Essentially, the challenges lie both on the battlefield and in external interference. Russian leadership has realized that relying solely on their own strength isn't enough; they need a robust response to NATO's involvement.
In recent months, there have been new developments in the situation. The United States and NATO have increased their aid, prompting direct retaliatory actions from Russia. This conflict goes beyond mere warfare; it involves global power dynamics, with each side vying for advantage.
Since February 2022, when Russian forces first entered Ukraine, they expected a quick resolution. However, as of July 2025, the conflict still persists in a tug-of-war along the eastern frontlines. Russia has suffered significant losses; reports indicate nearly 200,000 casualties in the first half of 2025 alone, surpassing the combined total of previous years.
Why? Firstly, Russian forces are advancing on multiple fronts but at a snail's pace. For instance, in directions like Kharkiv and Donetsk, attempts to breach Ukrainian defenses come at a high cost for every few kilometers gained.
Ukraine has employed precise Western-supplied weapons, such as drones and long-range missiles, capable of targeting Russian supply lines and command centers, preventing Russia from concentrating its forces.
Economically, Russia has spent exorbitantly to sustain the war. Military expenditures in 2025 exceed 10% of GDP, leading to high inflation and the depreciation of the ruble, affecting businesses adversely. The Russian Central Bank's repeated interest rate hikes aimed at stabilizing prices have suppressed economic growth.
Some economists predict that if the war continues, Russia's oil reserves could be depleted by 2026, disrupting military production. Russia also faces manpower shortages; although conscription has expanded, new recruits are inadequately trained and lack morale.
In contrast, Ukraine, though smaller, benefits from NATO training and intelligence support, making its defense more agile. Russian losses of tanks and aircraft are high and difficult to replace due to sanctions cutting off parts supplies. Overall, Russia isn't unable to win but unable to afford the attrition of this prolonged conflict.
Key to Russia's inability to swiftly overcome Ukraine is NATO's increased support. Since 2022, Western countries have continuously supplied weapons, and by July 2025, the scale of this aid has grown.
Initially hesitant, the Trump administration changed course, announcing on July 13th a cost-sharing plan among NATO members for the Patriot missile defense system, prioritizing Ukraine. Switzerland's delayed delivery of five systems was redirected for Ukrainian use, significantly bolstering Ukraine's air defense capability against Russian missiles and drones.
Germany provided long-range missiles and launch platforms, while the UK chaired meetings discussing Trump's arms plan. On July 21st, NATO Secretary-General attended a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, promising more arms aid.
In response to NATO's increased aid, Russia took direct action. On July 16th, the Russian Defense Ministry reported five cluster strikes on Ukrainian targets last week, using high-precision weapons and drones to destroy military factories, airports, and fuel depots, eliminating thousands of drones and dozens of missiles. Russia also advanced ground offensives, gaining control of over ten settlements in three Ukrainian provinces.
Putin's stance has been firm; following talks with Trump on July 3rd, failing to reach an agreement, he publicly stated Russia wouldn't compromise on Ukrainian objectives, including demilitarization and neutral status. The Kremlin spokesperson Peskov mocked NATO's aid, suggesting it only prolongs the war without altering its outcome.
Russia also heightened nuclear deterrence narratives, repeatedly mentioning nuclear threats to deter further Western intervention. On July 15th, Putin indicated that even with Trump's weapon supply, Russia would continue advancing, possibly gaining more territory. This response is a clear signal to NATO that however much aid they provide, Russia will escalate its military efforts.
Overall, Russia's responses involve both military actions and diplomatic pressures to prevent NATO from easily controlling the situation. While the conflict appears to be between Russia and Ukraine, fundamentally, it's a showdown between Russia and the West. Surveys among Ukrainians show that over half support negotiating an end to the war rather than continuing indefinitely. While Russia's economy is strained, it can endure due to redirected oil exports to Asia, maintaining cash flow.
Although Western aid has been significant, it's not unlimited. Trump emphasizes American priorities and hesitates to invest indefinitely. On July 23rd, Ukraine proposed peace talks in Turkey involving Putin, Trump, and Erdogan, but Russia insisted on conditions, refusing to compromise.
The future remains uncertain; if Russia continues its offensive, losses could escalate in the latter half of 2025, potentially exceeding a million casualties. While Ukraine can defend with aid, its offensive capabilities are weak. Both sides exchange prisoners and wounded, demonstrating some humanitarian limits, but core ceasefire issues remain unresolved.
Russia controls 20% of Ukrainian territory but at great cost. NATO summit results have disappointed Russia; while aid promises increased, Russia responded with attacks, leaving the situation at a stalemate. Ultimately, whichever side can't endure will have to concede, and this game isn't ending easily.
Russia's military issues didn't arise overnight. From initial strategic misjudgments to current resource consumption, each contributes to their difficulties. While Ukraine's military is weaker, Western support provides resilience in defense. NATO aid balances the battlefield, making it costly for Russia to achieve more without greater sacrifice.
Though Russia's responses are assertive, they reveal internal pressures. Economists suggest Russia's military industrial complex can hold out for over a year, but inflation and business closures will worsen. Despite Ukraine's aid, internal reconstruction pressures are significant, with the power system in disarray from bombings.
NATO's aid strategy is also evolving; Trump initially paused some aid, signaling negotiation intentions. Still, after failed talks, he ramped up support again. This shows U.S. policy fluctuates based on negotiation progress. Russia seizes on this, increasing strikes to force Western concessions.
On July 2nd, Russian officials publicly claimed the U.S. aid suspension as their victory, but were soon proven wrong. NATO members sharing costs, with Germany willing to pay, makes aid more sustainable.
In the long run, this war benefits neither side. Russia's global influence wanes, losing markets in the Middle East and the Caucasus. Ukraine faces severe population loss, with eight million refugees abroad.
Peace talks are the way out, but there's a large gap in conditions. Russia wants Ukraine to cede territory and remain neutral; Ukraine wants to restore its borders. Trump may push for negotiations, but Russia remains skeptical. The massive attacks on July 22nd were Russia's clear signal: aid comes, and we strike back.
