Recently, Southeast Asia has been unstable, and the conflict at the Cambodia-Thailand border has pushed Cambodia's situation to a breaking point. The Cambodian government, led by Hun Sen, now faces internal and external crises. The conflict with Thailand has shown the stark imbalance of power, with Cambodia being continuously beaten and even facing rejection when trying to change the location of peace talks. The most obvious disadvantage in this conflict has been Cambodia’s military weakness. Despite spending large amounts of money on advanced anti-tank missiles, Cambodia was unable to use them effectively. Thailand’s tanks never came close enough to Cambodia's position, instead firing from long distances, making the anti-tank missiles useless. Even worse, while Cambodia focused on purchasing offensive weapons, it neglected to build up its air defense capabilities. As a result, Thailand’s F-16 fighter jets had free rein to attack from high altitudes, destroying numerous military bases and ammunition depots in Cambodia, causing significant damage. On the other hand, Thailand had already gathered intelligence and formulated a strategy, even sending officers to Russia to learn advanced tactics for using drones in coordination with artillery. These strategies were fully utilized in the conflict, and Thailand’s combined naval, land, and air forces overwhelmed Cambodia.
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To make matters worse, Cambodia’s economy has been severely impacted by Thailand. Cambodia’s reliance on casinos and online fraud zones for quick profits has been dealt a blow by Thailand’s military actions, which targeted these revenue sources. Furthermore, Thailand blocked Cambodia’s coastline and logistics routes, severely disrupting Cambodia’s fuel supply. The country, which relies heavily on imports from Thailand, now faces fuel shortages and power supply problems, leading to soaring prices. The Cambodian people, who previously survived on rice exports and border trade, now have no way of making a living as border crossings are closed, factories cannot receive raw materials, and a large number of workers are left unemployed. Meanwhile, a million Cambodians working in Thailand have been expelled, many of them unable to find new jobs and forced to rely on family support, further straining Cambodian society. When it came time for Cambodia and Thailand to negotiate, Cambodia’s attempt to change the location of the talks failed miserably. The two sides had originally agreed to meet in Thailand’s Chanthaburi province on December 24, but at the last minute, Cambodia requested to move the location to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, citing the ongoing fighting at the border. Thailand firmly rejected the request, saying the area in Chanthaburi had not seen any fighting and was completely safe, and that, according to previous agreements, it was Thailand’s turn to host the talks. This seemingly small disagreement actually highlighted the deeper issues at play. Cambodia wanted to shift the talks to a third country in hopes of drawing international attention and pressuring Thailand. However, Thailand refused to cooperate and insisted on maintaining control of the situation. This request from Cambodia, which was rejected, exposed the dire situation Cambodia finds itself in. If Cambodia had real strength, it wouldn’t have needed to rely on changing the venue to gain leverage.
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Internally, the government also faces serious challenges. The Hun Sen family has ruled Cambodia for over 30 years, and the public trust that had been built during the period of rapid economic growth is now being eroded by war and economic decline. The country is currently going through a power transition, with Hun Sen serving as Senate President and his son, Hun Manet, becoming Prime Minister. This father-son rule requires a stable environment, but the border conflict has aggravated economic issues and escalated public discontent, shaking the previously strong social foundation. To seek external support, Hun Manet’s government has attempted to align more with the United States, restarting joint military exercises that had been suspended for 8 years and even allowing U.S. and Japanese warships to use Chinese-funded naval bases. This has sparked discontent within Cambodia, further fueling internal divisions. Now, both opposition forces and members of the royal family are closely monitoring the situation. If the government cannot resolve the current crisis, it could lead to even greater internal unrest. The international community is also attempting to mediate. China has sent envoys to both sides for negotiations, and ASEAN is considering sending observers and organizing special meetings to de-escalate tensions. However, the results have been minimal. Thailand has maintained a tough stance, demanding that Cambodia cease fire, accept supervision, and cooperate with landmine clearance. Cambodia views this as ercion but Washington has yet to give a clear statement of support. Attempts to pressure Thailand through international involvement have not yielded substantial results, as few countries are willing to take strong action.
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今日霍州(www.jrhz.info)©️
In summary, Cambodia is now on the brink of collapse. The country’s military needs substantial funding to recover, which the government cannot afford; its economic situation is rapidly worsening, putting immense pressure on the population; internal conflicts are escalating; and there is little reliable external assistance. This conflict has exposed the true limitations of Hun Sen’s government and sent a clear message to the world: Cambodia is struggling to survive. From military defeats to economic collapse, from being unable to negotiate effectively to growing internal instability, Cambodia now faces internal and external crises. If Cambodia cannot find a way to de-escalate and negotiate a ceasefire, the country is at risk of falling into even greater chaos. For Cambodia, maintaining basic stability and ensuring the survival of the population is far more important than saving face.
