The Swine Market in Mid-2025: A Tale of Two Halves
As July 2025 unfolds, the Chinese swine market finds itself at a critical juncture, marked by a recent price correction following a period of relative stability. While the first half of the year saw prices largely consolidating between 14.5 and 15 yuan per kilogram, with occasional dips below 14 yuan, July has witnessed a downward trend, the price tumbling from 15.4 yuan to 14.24 yuan per kilogram. This recent decline paints a complex picture of supply and demand dynamics.
The First Act: Resilience Amidst Uncertainty (H1 2025)
Looking back at the first six months, the market displayed surprising resilience. Despite the usual post-Chinese New Year slump, prices held relatively firm. This was largely attributed to a temporary tightening in the supply of medium to large-sized pigs, coupled with a significant price difference between standard and heavier animals. This incentivized renewed interest in \"secondary fattening,\" where farmers purchase leaner pigs to raise to heavier weights, further supporting prices. Moreover, producers demonstrated a measured approach to culling breeding stock, contributing to the overall stability. This created a market with a perceptible floor, preventing prices from plummeting.
The Second Act: A Summer Slump (July 2025)
However, the market's equilibrium shifted as July arrived. The initial price surge proved unsustainable, ultimately giving way to a correction. Despite increased resistance to price cuts from farmers, and even instances of major pork companies curbing sales volumes, seasonal factors have exerted a strong downward influence. As the hot summer months curb appetites for pork and consumers turn to alternative proteins, overall demand has softened considerably.
Underlying Market Dynamics: A Mismatch of Supply and Demand
The current downward pressure on prices is rooted in a fundamental imbalance: ample pork supply struggling to meet tepid consumer demand. At the heart of the issue is a pronounced disconnect between production and sales, leading to a glut in the market.
On the demand side, the expected recovery in consumer spending has been slow to materialize. The summer heat has prompted a shift in dietary preferences, with consumers favoring lighter fare over heavier pork dishes. This is compounded by the fact that students are now on vacation, leading to a decrease in bulk purchases by school cafeterias. As a consequence, the fresh pork market remains sluggish, with major slaughterhouses operating at a mere 25-26apacity, indicating a significant lack of market absorption.
On the supply side, while major pork companies have reportedly reduced their planned output for the month, the overall picture remains one of abundance. The industry is still grappling with the lagged effects of increased sow inventories. The market anticipates that the elevated pork production capacity will fully manifest itself in the coming months, creating a sense of urgency among producers to liquidate their holdings and secure profits. Adding to this dynamic is the active selling of medium to large-sized pigs raised through secondary fattening programs.
The Road Ahead: A Balancing Act
Caught between these opposing forces, the swine market is experiencing a period of volatility and price erosion. However, as July draws to a close, there are indications that the downward trend may be nearing its end. With major pork companies unlikely to further increase slaughter volumes, the market may find some stability. Prices are therefore expected to \"grind along the bottom\" for the near future.
According to data released due to shifting price strategies of pork-processing companies, on July 24th, the projected price for top-grade, lean-meat hogs is 14.28 yuan per kilogram. Going forward, the focus will be on monitoring shifts in market sentiment, particularly the production decisions of the largest pork producers.
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